WASDE Apr 2026 – Grains: Extreme Longs vs Mixed Signals
Apr 10, 2026
Speculators are holding their most aggressive net long positions across major grain markets in two years, even as US crop stockpiles show a mixed fundamental picture with some supplies remaining comfortable compared to historical averages.
Executive Summary
The April WASDE reveals a tale of two supply stories — while US corn stocks sit 2.6 percentage points tighter year-over-year, soybeans and cotton show comfortable-to-ample supplies relative to 5-year averages. Yet specs are positioned at extreme net long levels across all three crops (88th-99th percentiles over two years), suggesting world supply tightening may be driving positioning despite mixed US fundamentals.
📊 Data Sources
- WASDE: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates — monthly supply/demand balance sheets
- COT: CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Legacy Format)
- Percentiles: Dual window — 2-year (104 weeks) primary + 10-year (520 weeks) structural context
- 📊 View Interactive Dashboard → | 📥 Download COT Data
Global Backdrop
The FAO Food Price Index climbed 2% month-over-month in February to 132.1, marking a 5.6-point gain over three months. Nitrogen fertilizer costs continued their upward trajectory with a 3% increase over the latest three-month period, reaching an index level of 501.7. This input cost pressure provides a supportive backdrop for grain markets as planting season approaches.
Corn: World Tightening Justifies Spec Longs
US corn ending stocks stand at 2,126.8 million bushels, translating to a 12.9% stocks-to-use ratio — significantly tighter than the 5-year average of 9.9%. The year-over-year comparison shows a notable 2.6 percentage point increase in the S/U ratio, indicating domestic supplies have tightened considerably from the previous marketing year.
The global picture tells a different story. World S/U sits at 23.8%, running 2.8 percentage points below the 5-year average of 26.6%. This creates a 10.9 percentage point gap where the US appears relatively tighter than global supplies. The WASDE has held corn balance sheets unchanged through the current campaign, providing stability in the fundamental outlook.
Specs hold net long positions of 290,819 contracts — the 88th percentile over two years and 75th percentile over ten years. Despite the recent weekly reduction of 43,938 contracts, the positioning remains elevated and aligns with the tighter-than-average supply conditions. The corn story this month is world supply concerns driving spec longs in harmony with a genuinely tight US balance sheet.
Soybeans: Comfortable Supply vs Extreme Positioning
US soybean ending stocks of 349.9 million bushels yield an 8.2% S/U ratio, running 1.5 percentage points above the 5-year average of 6.7%. The year-over-year increase of 0.9 percentage points indicates domestic supplies have loosened from already comfortable levels. Production of 4,261.9 million bushels supports this ample supply picture.
Globally, soybean supplies show even more comfort. World S/U reaches 30.1%, exceeding the 5-year average of 29.0% by 1.1 percentage points. This creates a stark 21.9 percentage point divergence where US supplies appear dramatically tighter than the global balance sheet reality.
The positioning divergence is striking. Specs maintain net long positions of 208,459 contracts at the 88th percentile over two years (86th over ten years), despite the comfortable US supply situation. The recent weekly reduction of 19,387 contracts hasn't materially altered the extreme positioning. This represents a fundamental divergence where specs are positioned net long despite supplies running above historical averages.
Soybean Complex: Crush Products at Extremes
Soybean meal and oil specs have pushed positioning to even more extreme levels than the underlying bean. Meal specs hold net long positions at the 98th percentile over two years (90th over ten years), while oil specs have reached the 99th percentile across both timeframes — extreme across both windows, not just a recent phenomenon.
The oil positioning increased by 13,685 contracts weekly while meal declined by 3,330 contracts. This crush-product strength may reflect tight global vegetable oil supplies independent of the broader soybean fundamental picture.
Wheat: Net Short Despite Loose Supplies
US wheat presents the most balanced positioning relative to fundamentals. Ending stocks of 937.6 million bushels create a 46.3% S/U ratio — running 8.8 percentage points above the 5-year average of 37.5%. This represents genuinely ample supplies in historical context.
World wheat supplies are more balanced at 38.1% S/U, exactly matching the 5-year average. The 8.2 percentage point gap shows US supplies as looser than global conditions — the opposite pattern from corn.
Specs hold a modest net short position of -18,707 contracts, sitting at the 85th percentile over two years but neutral (50th percentile) over ten years. The recent weekly increase in short positioning by 9,292 contracts aligns logically with the ample US supply picture. Hard red winter wheat specs maintain a small net long position of 3,578 contracts at the 93rd percentile over two years.
Cotton: Extreme Longs Meet Comfortable Supply
Cotton exhibits the most pronounced fundamental-positioning divergence. US ending stocks of 4,400 thousand bales generate a 32.4% S/U ratio, running 6.0 percentage points above the 5-year average of 26.4%. The year-over-year increase of 3.0 percentage points indicates supplies have grown more comfortable.
World cotton supplies are even more ample at 64.7% S/U, exceeding the 5-year average by 2.1 percentage points. Despite this comfort globally, specs hold net long positions of 61,357 contracts at the 99th percentile over two years (62nd over ten years). The weekly increase of 12,970 contracts pushed positioning to even more extreme levels.
This positioning reflects the most significant fundamental divergence in the April data — extreme spec longs despite comfortable-to-ample supplies both domestically and globally.
Softs & Livestock: Mixed Positioning Patterns
Sugar specs maintain net short positions of -70,753 contracts at moderate levels (31st percentile over two years, 15th over ten years). Coffee presents minimal net long exposure of 21,707 contracts in the bottom decile over two years (7th percentile). Cocoa shows the most bearish spec positioning at -22,072 contracts, sitting at the 1st percentile over two years and 4th over ten years — extreme across both timeframes.
Livestock positioning remains generally constructive. Live cattle specs hold net long positions of 104,016 contracts at the 69th percentile over two years (82nd over ten years). Lean hogs show moderate net long positioning of 46,461 contracts near neutral levels. Feeder cattle maintain small net long positions of 11,021 contracts.
Cross-Commodity Themes
The April data reveals a clear grain-centric spec buying theme. Corn, soybeans, and cotton all show net long positioning at or above the 88th percentile over two years, while wheat maintains more modest short positioning. This pattern suggests broad grain sector optimism rather than crop-specific fundamental stories.
The positioning intensity in soybeans and cotton appears disconnected from underlying US supply fundamentals, potentially reflecting global supply concerns, currency effects, or broader commodity sector momentum rather than traditional S/U analysis.
📍 Key Questions for Next Month
- Will cotton specs maintain 99th percentile net long positioning if the May WASDE continues to show comfortable 32%+ US S/U ratios?
- Can soybean oil specs sustain 99th percentile positioning levels given the ample 30%+ global S/U environment?
- Will corn specs add to their 88th percentile net long positions if world S/U tightening continues below the 26.6% five-year average?
This analysis combines USDA WASDE supply/demand data with CFTC positioning data for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice.
The next WASDE is expected around the 10th of next month. Check back then for the updated analysis.
Explore More: Interactive Dashboard | Weekly COT Analysis | Complete Methodology