COT Jun 2 – Treasury Curve Splits & Bitcoin High

Eleven markets reached 95th percentile or above (or 5th percentile or below) this week. That's the breadth story — not one dominant position change, but simultaneous extremes across equity indices, crypto, metals, grains, and the Treasury curve.

For someone new to COT data: these positioning extremes show where hedge funds and other large speculators have crowded into concentrated bets. When many markets hit extremes at once, it often reflects coordinated macro positioning or broad risk sentiment shifts. The data doesn't predict price direction, but it tells you where the crowding is.

Data & Methodology

This analysis uses the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Legacy format) covering futures positioning through Tuesday June 2, 2026. Percentiles are calculated across two windows: a 2-year sample (104 weeks, primary reference) and a 10-year sample (520 weeks, structural context). Markets at the 95th percentile or above represent extreme net long positioning; 5th percentile or below represents extreme net short positioning. Full methodology available at /methodology. Download this week's data (JSON) | View Interactive Dashboard →

Top 10 Extreme Positions This Week

Rank	Market	Net Position	2Y Pct	10Y Pct	Z-Score
1	Bitcoin	2,458	99th	99th	2.02
2	Copper	78,833	99th	99th	2.33
3	Lean Hogs	-37,054	1st	1st	-2.18
4	Nasdaq 100	-22,085	1st	1st	-2.65
5	S&P 500	-214,309	1st	6th	-1.79
6	Soybean Meal	156,187	99th	96th	2.19
7	5Y Treasury	-1,369,218	97th	42nd	1.65
8	Coffee C	13,388	3rd	16th	-1.69
9	30Y Treasury	-159,853	4th	9th	-2.20
10	Cotton	85,206	96th	83rd	2.90

Bitcoin and Copper — Dual 99th Percentile Positions

Bitcoin reached the 99th percentile in both the 2-year and 10-year windows this week, with net longs at 2,458 contracts. Non-commercial traders hold 12.4% of open interest net long — a concentrated position, though the absolute contract count remains modest given Bitcoin futures are relatively new and open interest is still building compared to legacy markets.

Copper matched Bitcoin at the 99th percentile across both timeframes, net long 78,833 contracts. This represents 23.3% of open interest on the net long side, a meaningfully crowded trade. Copper has been at extreme positioning for nine consecutive weeks now (noted in the persistent extremes list), so this isn't a new development — but the fact that positioning remains pinned at the 99th percentile while holding that level for multiple months suggests structural conviction rather than a tactical spike.

Both markets show sustained builds: Bitcoin's net position is +2,610 above its full-period average, and Copper is +47,583 above. When positioning reaches a multi-year extreme and stays there, it typically reflects either a macro thematic trade (inflation hedges, industrial demand views) or a heavily crowded consensus. Either way, concentrated net long exposure of this magnitude has historically been sensitive to any price disappointment or macro catalyst that triggers unwinding.

Treasury Curve Split — 10Y Shorts Surge, 5Y Sits at Long-Side Extreme

The biggest single position change this week was 10Y Treasury, where net shorts expanded to -829,575 contracts. That puts it at the 43rd percentile over two years (19th over ten years) — not an extreme, but the change itself was notable. The net position is -335,130 contracts below the 4-week average and -642,933 below the 13-week average, indicating a rapid accumulation of short exposure.

Meanwhile, 5Y Treasury sits at the opposite end: 97th percentile over two years (42nd over ten years), net short -1,369,218 contracts. The 5Y position is +124,530 above its 4-week average and +230,165 above its 13-week average. This is a sustained build on the net short side, and at the 97th percentile it represents one of the most net short positions in the 2-year sample.

The divergence is the interesting part. Speculators are heavily net short the 5Y (extreme positioning, 97th percentile) while adding shorts aggressively in the 10Y (43rd percentile, but building fast). The 30Y remains near its lows at the 4th percentile. This curve split may reflect views on Fed policy paths, curve steepening expectations, or duration bets — but from a positioning perspective, the 5Y short is the crowded trade, and the 10Y is catching up quickly.

Equity Index Shorts — S&P 500 and Nasdaq at 1st Percentile

S&P 500 net shorts reached -214,309 contracts, the 1st percentile over two years (6th over ten years). This represents -9.8% of open interest net short — a sizable but not heavily concentrated position. The build has been sustained: net shorts are -87,549 below the 4-week average and -87,549 below the 13-week average (both figures identical, suggesting steady accumulation over the past quarter).

Nasdaq 100 sits at the same 1st percentile over two years (also 1st over ten years), net short -22,085 contracts. The Nasdaq position is more concentrated relative to its open interest, though absolute contract size is smaller.

Both index shorts have been at extreme levels for multiple weeks. Positioning this washed out on the net long side has historically sometimes coincided with periods when speculative selling pressure is exhausted — but low positioning can persist for extended periods, particularly if macro conditions or volatility remain elevated. The data shows where positioning sits, not when it will reverse.

One Alignment Signal — Feeder Cattle

One market showed the alignment signal this week: Feeder Cattle, where both large speculators and commercials are positioned net long. This means small speculators (retail public) hold the entire net short position. Because futures markets are zero-sum, when two groups align on one side, the third group holds 100% of the counterparty exposure.

In Feeder Cattle, large specs hold +1,990 contracts net (3.4% of open interest) and commercials hold +1,201 contracts net (2.1% of open interest). The COT percentile is 20th — not an extreme, so the signal is present but not amplified by extreme positioning.

Historically, this type of alignment has sometimes coincided with periods of elevated positioning volatility for the retail-held side, though the mechanic is structural, not predictive. The signal is more notable when it appears at positioning extremes (90th+ or 10th- percentile), which is not the case here.

What Different Scenarios Might Mean for These Positions

For S&P 500 (1st percentile net short, -214,309 contracts):

• If S&P 500 makes new lows over the next two weeks while net shorts remain at the 1st percentile, this would be consistent with speculative selling exhaustion — a positioning condition that has historically sometimes preceded trend exhaustion phases, though timing cannot be determined from positioning data alone.
• If price rallies while net shorts remain at -9.8% of open interest, this positioning may indicate potential covering pressure if the rally accelerates — crowded net short exposure of this magnitude has sometimes coincided with short squeezes in past cycles.
• If net shorts begin to cover rapidly (position moves toward neutral) without significant price movement, this may reflect tactical repositioning or volatility-driven rebalancing rather than a macro view change.

For Bitcoin (99th percentile net long, 2,458 contracts):

• If Bitcoin continues to make new highs while net longs hold at the 99th percentile, this is consistent with a sustained trend-following build — positioning extremes have historically sometimes persisted during strong directional moves, though the crowding increases unwind risk if price stalls.
• If price consolidates or declines while net longs remain at 12.4% of open interest, this may indicate crowded positioning vulnerable to liquidation — though the absolute contract count is modest, the percentile rank suggests limited additional buying capacity from this cohort.
• If net longs begin to unwind without significant price weakness, this may reflect profit-taking or tactical rotation rather than a fundamental view change.

For 5Y Treasury (97th percentile net short, -1,369,218 contracts):

• If yields continue to rise while net shorts remain at the 97th percentile, this build would be consistent with a macro-driven positioning trend that has been sustained over multiple months — though at the 97th percentile, the crowding makes the position sensitive to any dovish policy signals.
• If yields stabilize or fall while net shorts hold at this level, this would represent a potential unwind risk scenario — crowded net short exposure of this magnitude has historically sometimes preceded covering rallies in past cycles.
• If net shorts begin to cover rapidly (position moves below the 90th percentile) while yields remain stable, this may reflect tactical repositioning ahead of data releases or policy events rather than a macro view change.

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This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Next week's report covers the period ending June 9, 2026.