COT Jun 16 – Lean Hogs Hit Record Net Short

Eight markets are currently at positioning extremes — defined as 95th percentile or above, or 5th percentile or below — across the 43 futures markets tracked in this analysis.

That's the highest count of simultaneous extremes in the past two months. The breadth itself is the story this week, not any single market dominating the data.

For readers new to COT (Commitment of Traders) data: these reports show how different trader groups — primarily hedge funds and commodity trading advisors (the "non-commercial" category) versus commercial hedgers — are positioned in futures markets. Extreme readings indicate crowded positioning, which has historically sometimes preceded periods of elevated volatility or positioning unwinding, though the timing cannot be determined from positioning data alone.

This analysis uses data from the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report, comparing current positioning to both 2-year and 10-year historical ranges to identify extremes. Full Methodology → | Download this week's data (JSON) | View Interactive Dashboard →

Top 10 Extreme Positions

The table below ranks markets by their 2-year percentile score — how extreme positioning is relative to the past 104 weeks:

Rank	Market	Net Position	2Y Pct	10Y Pct	Z-Score
1	Bitcoin	3,475	99th	99th	2.59
2	Coffee C	9,206	1st	13th	-1.80
3	Lean Hogs	-59,342	1st	1st	-2.64
4	5Y Treasury	-1,350,177	98th	43rd	1.68
5	Nasdaq 100	-20,866	2nd	1st	-2.49
6	Copper	75,350	97th	99th	2.06
7	Japanese Yen	-150,132	4th	4th	-1.94
8	Cocoa	-20,880	5th	2nd	-1.65
9	30Y Treasury	-159,551	6th	10th	-2.05
10	British Pound	-71,585	7th	5th	-1.41

Lean Hogs: Extreme Net Short, Sustained Build

Lean Hogs positioning hit the 1st percentile over both 2-year and 10-year windows this week — meaning large speculators are more net short than at any point in the available dataset.

Net position: -59,342 contracts. That's a Z-score of -2.64 relative to the full-period average of -104,575. The positioning has built consistently: -31,544 vs the 4-week average, -39,396 vs the 13-week average. This is a sustained multi-week build, not a tactical spike.

Non-commercial net shorts represent -19.3% of open interest. That's meaningful speculative crowding on the short side, though not the most concentrated in absolute terms across all markets this week.

Commercials hold the offsetting net long position (+60,791 contracts, 19.8% of OI). This is the normal state — large speculators and commercials on opposite sides, with small speculators providing the remaining counterparty liquidity.

One historical pattern worth noting: In past cycles, similar positioning extremes in Lean Hogs have sometimes coincided with price floor discovery phases, but this is not a signal on its own. The pattern can persist for multiple weeks, particularly during structural supply shifts in the hog market.

Bitcoin: 99th Percentile Net Long, Crypto Crowding Returns

Bitcoin positioning reached the 99th percentile over both 2-year and 10-year windows — the most extreme net long in the dataset.

Net position: +3,475 contracts. Non-commercial net longs represent 16.4% of open interest. This is hedge-fund-style crowding on the long side, not commercial hedging activity.

The build has been sustained: +4,033 vs the 4-week average, +3,828 vs the 13-week average. This reflects structural conviction positioning, not a single-week tactical entry.

Commercials hold -3,545 contracts net short (-16.8% of OI), perfectly offsetting the non-commercial longs. Small speculators are near neutral, which is typical for crypto futures where the non-commercial category often dominates directional positioning.

Within this 104-week sample, Bitcoin positioning at the 99th percentile has been uncommon. The most recent comparable reading occurred in late 2025 during the run above $100k. The positioning can persist at extreme levels during trending price phases, but it becomes particularly sensitive to macro catalysts or price disappointment when this crowded.

Treasury Complex: Mixed Signals, 5Y Remains Extreme

The Treasury complex shows divergent positioning across the curve.

5-year Treasury positioning remains at the 98th percentile (2-year window) but only the 43rd percentile over 10 years. That's extreme within the recent sample, but mid-range in a longer structural context — suggesting the current positioning level has precedent in earlier cycles.

Net position: -1,350,177 contracts net short. The build has been sustained: +191,559 vs the 4-week average, +277,131 vs the 13-week average. Non-commercial net shorts represent -17.1% of open interest when looking at the broader Treasury short concentration across the curve.

10-year Treasuries moved sharply this week to -911,082 contracts (17th percentile 2-year, 7th percentile 10-year). That's a multi-week positioning shift, though it remains well off the most extreme levels observed in the dataset.

2-year Treasuries sit at the 46th percentile — effectively neutral positioning. 30-year Treasuries are at the 6th percentile (both 2-year and 10-year windows), representing net short crowding at the long end, though this has been flagged as a persistent extreme for 8+ consecutive weeks and is no longer newsworthy on its own.

The asymmetry is notable: shorts concentrated in the 5-year, relative neutrality in the 2-year, and persistent shorts in the 30-year. This is not a uniform curve trade.

Index Futures: S&P and Nasdaq at Low Percentiles

S&P 500 positioning is at the 8th percentile (2-year) and 13th percentile (10-year). Net position: -180,143 contracts. Non-commercial net shorts represent -6.9% of open interest — modest crowding in absolute terms, but meaningful for an index with this level of institutional participation.

Nasdaq 100 is at the 2nd percentile (2-year) and 1st percentile (10-year). Net position: -20,866 contracts. This is an extreme net short position across both windows. The positioning has been flagged as a persistent extreme for 8+ consecutive weeks, so the absolute level is not new, but the duration of the extreme is becoming notable.

Russell 2000 and Dow Jones remain near median positioning (44th and 65th percentiles respectively). VIX futures are at the 29th percentile — neutral positioning, no speculative volatility panic or complacency signal visible in the data.

FX: British Pound Shorts, US Dollar Index Long

British Pound positioning reached the 7th percentile (2-year) and 5th percentile (10-year). Net position: -71,585 contracts. Non-commercial net shorts represent -22.1% of open interest — this is concentrated crowding on the short side.

US Dollar Index is at the 80th percentile (2-year) but only the 53rd percentile (10-year). Net position: +13,197 contracts. Non-commercial net longs represent 26.7% of open interest, which is the highest crowding concentration among major FX markets this week.

Japanese Yen remains at the 4th percentile across both windows (-150,132 contracts net short), but this has been persistent for multiple weeks and is no longer a fresh development.

Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar both sit near median positioning (68th and 23rd percentiles respectively). Euro is at the 37th percentile — neutral positioning despite significant macro uncertainty around European rates.

One structural observation: large speculators and commercials are both net short in Australian Dollar this week. Both hold -4,125 and -13,084 contracts respectively. Because futures markets are zero-sum, this means small speculators hold the entire net long position. Historically, when large speculators and commercials have aligned on the same side, small speculator positions have sometimes coincided with periods of elevated positioning volatility — though this is a configuration flag, not a timing tool. The Australian Dollar is not at an extreme percentile (68th), so the alignment is occurring in mid-range positioning territory.

Metals and Energy: Copper Long, Natural Gas Short

Copper is at the 97th percentile (2-year) and 99th percentile (10-year). Net position: +75,350 contracts. Non-commercial net longs represent 22.8% of open interest — concentrated crowding on the long side, and the positioning has been persistent for 8+ consecutive weeks.

Silver is at the 15th percentile (2-year) but 38th percentile (10-year). Net position: +24,544 contracts. The positioning has built consistently: -33,714 vs the 4-week average, -27,645 vs the 13-week average. This is speculative selling into the market, not a spike.

Natural Gas is at the 14th percentile (2-year) and 8th percentile (10-year). Net position: -173,476 contracts net short. Non-commercial net shorts represent -10.5% of open interest. Commercials hold +162,754 contracts net long (offsetting the speculative shorts). This is typical seasonal positioning for Natural Gas, though it's at the lower end of the recent range.

Gold and Platinum both sit near the 25th percentile — below-median positioning but not extreme.

Agricultural Complex: Feeder Cattle Alignment Signal

Cocoa is at the 5th percentile (2-year) and 2nd percentile (10-year). Net position: -20,880 contracts net short. This is extreme net short positioning across both windows, though not quite as compressed as Lean Hogs.

Feeder Cattle shows a second instance of the alignment signal this week: large speculators and commercials are both net long (+4,101 and +1,418 contracts respectively). Small speculators therefore hold the entire net short position. Feeder Cattle is at the 24th percentile — this alignment is occurring in below-median positioning territory, not at an extreme. The signal is less amplified than in markets at the 90th+ or 10th- percentiles.

Cotton sits at the 93rd percentile, Soybean Oil at the 88th, and Soybean Meal at the 75th — all elevated positioning but just below the 95th threshold for inclusion in the formal extreme list.

Coffee C is at the 1st percentile (2-year) and 13th percentile (10-year), but this has been persistent for 8+ consecutive weeks.

Lean Hogs and Bitcoin: If/Then Observations

For Lean Hogs:

• If net shorts continue building while price fails to make new lows, then this may be consistent with speculative exhaustion on the short side — a positioning pattern that has occasionally preceded covering rallies in past cycles, though timing cannot be determined from positioning alone.
• If price breaks lower and net shorts reduce (short covering into weakness), then this would be consistent with tactical repositioning rather than structural bearish conviction — the -19.3% non-commercial crowding ratio suggests there is meaningful short interest available to cover.
• If the sustained build (consistent across 4-week and 13-week averages) continues for another 2-3 weeks without a positioning reversal, then this may indicate structural hedging or supply-side expectations among commercials that have not yet been reflected in price.

For Bitcoin:

• If price continues higher and net longs remain at the 99th percentile, then this is consistent with trend-following positioning during momentum phases — historically, Bitcoin has been able to sustain extreme positioning during extended trending periods, though the 16.4% non-commercial crowding ratio indicates concentrated exposure.
• If price stalls or pulls back while positioning remains at the 99th percentile, then this setup has sometimes preceded positioning unwinds — the combination of crowded longs and loss of price momentum has been associated with sharp deleveraging in past cycles.
• If positioning reduces from the 99th percentile over the next 1-2 weeks independent of price action, then this would suggest profit-taking or tactical rotation rather than a fundamental shift in sentiment — the sustained build pattern (consistent across 4 and 13 weeks) indicates structural conviction that may reassert itself after a brief pause.

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Next week's report covers the period ending June 23, 2026.

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