Ethanol — Commitment of Traders

Ethanol futures trade on the CBOT in 29,000-gallon contracts and are closely linked to corn prices, blending mandates, and the US Renewable Fuel Standard. The COT report for ethanol is smaller in open interest than most energy markets, reflecting its more specialised trading base of blenders, producers, and agricultural-adjacent speculators. Commercial hedgers — corn-based ethanol producers and fuel blenders — use the market to lock in production margins, and their positioning shifts in response to corn input costs and RFS credit (RIN) prices. Speculative activity tends to track corn market sentiment, since ethanol profitability rises and falls with the corn-to-ethanol spread. The COT Index for ethanol helps identify when speculative activity is historically elevated or depressed relative to typical seasonal patterns. Because the market is less liquid, extreme readings can be more enduring than in major energy markets. Watching weekly changes in the spec net alongside corn COT data provides a complete view of the agricultural-to-biofuel supply chain positioning.