Gasoline RBOB — Commitment of Traders

RBOB Gasoline futures trade on NYMEX in 42,000-gallon (1,000-barrel) contracts and represent the blendstock used to produce retail gasoline. COT positioning in RBOB tends to track the crack spread cycle: refiners hedge output by selling futures (driving commercial short positioning), while speculative funds bet on seasonal demand, refinery outages, and driving season patterns. The COT report is useful for identifying when the gasoline market is over-bought or over-sold relative to crude oil — a spec-long extreme in RBOB that is not reflected in WTI often signals a squeeze in refined products rather than a fundamental bull market. The COT Index for RBOB highlights whether current speculative enthusiasm is historically extreme. Peak driving season positioning ahead of summer typically pushes the spec long toward the upper quartile; the resolution of that position as autumn approaches is a reliable seasonal signal. Weekly changes in commercial hedging activity reveal how aggressively refiners are locking in margins, which in turn indicates their confidence in the forward demand outlook.