Heating Oil — Commitment of Traders

Heating Oil futures (also the benchmark for ultra-low-sulphur diesel in the US) trade on NYMEX in 42,000-gallon contracts. COT positioning in heating oil is driven by seasonal energy demand — cold winter expectations draw speculative longs, while shoulder seasons see position liquidation. Commercial hedgers include heating oil distributors and airlines (diesel jet fuel proxy), and their forward hedging activity signals confidence in demand. Because heating oil and diesel share refinery capacity with gasoline, positioning in this market often diverges from RBOB during refinery switches, creating spread trading opportunities that appear in the COT data. The COT Index is particularly instructive in the autumn pre-winter build season: when specs are already net long at high percentile readings before temperatures fall, the seasonal trade is often crowded and at risk of a washout if winter proves mild. Conversely, an extremely low COT Index heading into November suggests under-positioning that could fuel a sharp rally on any cold-weather surprise.