Australian Dollar — Commitment of Traders

Australian Dollar futures trade on the CME in 100,000-AUD contracts. The Aussie is the preeminent commodity and China-proxy currency in G10 FX, with its fortunes closely tied to iron ore, coal, and broader risk appetite. COT positioning in AUD is a direct read on global commodity cycle sentiment: when hedge funds are building large net longs, they are typically expressing a China recovery or global reflation trade. The COT Index for AUD highlights when that positioning is stretched — historically, AUD at a high COT Index has been vulnerable to any deterioration in Chinese economic data or a global risk-off episode. The Reserve Bank of Australia's divergence from global central banks also drives positioning cycles. Commercial hedgers (Australian miners, banks, and exporters) provide a structural counterweight. Weekly changes in the speculative net position in AUD are closely correlated with movements in the iron ore price and Chinese PMI data, making the COT report a useful aggregator of commodity and China macro sentiment.