Mexican Peso — Commitment of Traders

Mexican Peso futures trade on the CME in 500,000-peso contracts and are the primary EM currency futures market tracked by the COT report. The peso is sensitive to US-Mexico trade relations, nearshoring trends, oil revenues (Pemex), and the interest rate differential with the US. Speculative positioning in MXN has been dramatically reshaped by nearshoring: as manufacturing supply chains shift from Asia to Mexico, funds have built structural long positions in the peso that are more durable than typical carry plays. The COT Index for MXN helps identify when that structural long is over-extended versus when it is being unwound on macro risks. Commercial hedgers include Mexican exporters, maquiladora operators, and banks managing cross-border flows. Weekly changes in speculative net positions in the peso are a useful indicator of risk appetite across EM FX more broadly. When the peso COT Index is extremely high, even positive data can fail to push the currency higher — a classic sign of a crowded trade.