Canadian Dollar — Commitment of Traders

Canadian Dollar futures trade on the CME in 100,000-CAD contracts. The loonie is heavily correlated with crude oil prices and commodity cycles, making COT positioning in CAD a useful cross-market signal. When speculators are net long CAD at a high COT Index reading, it often aligns with strong oil prices and risk-on positioning — making it a crowded double exposure to energy and EM risk. When oil prices fall sharply, CAD longs unwind quickly, amplifying the move. Commercial hedgers include Canadian exporters and banks managing currency risk across the border, whose flows reflect the real-economy dimension of the trade. The COT report for CAD is particularly useful during periods when crude oil and Canadian rate differentials diverge: if oil is rallying but specs are already near historic highs in CAD, the currency may underperform energy. Weekly COT changes in CAD are a leading indicator of loonie direction and complement Bank of Canada policy expectations and oil inventory data.