Japanese Yen — Commitment of Traders

Japanese Yen futures trade on the CME in 12,500,000-yen contracts and are among the most closely watched currency futures because of the yen's role as a safe-haven and carry-trade funding currency. COT positioning in JPY is famously contrarian: speculative net shorts in the yen have historically been enormous and persistent during low-volatility carry regimes, only to unwind violently during risk-off episodes — the classic "yen carry unwind." The COT Index for JPY tracks where current speculative shorts rank historically, making it a useful early warning for crowded carry positions. When the COT Index falls below 10 (speculators maximally short), any shock to risk appetite can trigger a cascade of short-covering. Commercial hedgers (Japanese exporters and importers) provide a natural flow in the opposite direction to specs. Watching the interaction between the Bank of Japan's policy normalisation and speculative short positioning in the COT report is currently one of the most important macro trades in FX markets.