Wheat (SRW) — Commitment of Traders

Soft Red Winter (SRW) Wheat futures trade on the CBOT in 5,000-bushel contracts and are the US domestic wheat benchmark, primarily used for pastry and soft products. SRW is the most liquid US wheat contract and is the one most influenced by speculative activity. COT positioning in SRW wheat surges during geopolitical supply disruptions — the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 drove one of the largest and most rapid buildups in speculative net-long positions in the history of the COT report. The COT Index for SRW wheat is a powerful indicator at extremes: when geopolitical risk is priced in and specs are near historical highs, the market is vulnerable to peace-deal headlines or above-forecast production reports. Commercial hedgers — flour millers, bakers, and grain elevators — provide the fundamental anchor. Weekly changes in the speculative net position are closely watched during the Northern Hemisphere winter wheat growing season and around key USDA acreage and production reports.