Cocoa — Commitment of Traders

Cocoa futures trade on the ICE exchange in 10-metric-ton contracts and are the global benchmark for cocoa beans used in chocolate production. The COT report for cocoa is dominated by the tension between commercial hedgers (major chocolate manufacturers like Mondelez, Mars, and Lindt) who buy forward to secure their raw material supply, and speculative funds who bet on West African crop conditions. Ivory Coast and Ghana produce roughly 65% of the world's cocoa, making weather and political risk in those countries the dominant price driver. The 2023-2024 cocoa supply crisis — driven by El Niño and swollen shoot virus destroying West African crops — created historic speculative long positioning and price levels not seen since the 1970s. The COT Index for cocoa during this period hit repeated extremes, illustrating how fundamental supply shocks can sustain historically elevated spec positioning for extended periods. Weekly changes in the non-commercial net track closely with Ivory Coast mid-crop and main crop estimates and certified exchange warehouse levels.