WASDE May 2026 – Specs Max Long Amid Supply Divergence
May 10, 2026
Every month, the USDA updates its global crop supply estimates — and this month, grain speculators are holding their largest net long positions in two years, even as US stockpiles look comfortable across most crops.
Executive Summary
The May WASDE reveals a compelling story of global-versus-US supply divergence driving speculative positioning. Corn and soybean specs have reached extreme net long positions (96th and 97th percentiles over 2 years respectively) despite US supplies running above historical averages, with world supplies significantly tighter than US conditions explaining the apparent positioning disconnect.
📊 Data Sources
- WASDE: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates — monthly supply/demand balance sheets
- COT: CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Legacy Format)
- Percentiles: Dual window — 2-year (104 weeks) primary + 10-year (520 weeks) structural context
- 📊 View Interactive Dashboard → | 📥 Download COT Data
Global Backdrop
The FAO Food Price Index climbed to 132.1 in February, up 2.0% month-over-month and 5.6% over the past three months, indicating broad-based food commodity strength. Fertilizer costs continue their gradual ascent with nitrogen prices up 3% over three months, adding structural support to crop prices as input cost pressures persist into the 2026 planting season.
Corn: World Tightening Drives Spec Longs
US corn supplies remain comfortable with ending stocks projected at 2,126.8 million bushels, translating to a 12.9% stocks-to-use ratio compared to the 5-year average of 9.9%. This represents a 2.6 percentage point increase from last year's 10.3% ratio, indicating an improving US supply situation.
However, the global picture tells a different story. World stocks-to-use sits at 23.8% versus a 5-year average of 26.6%, with year-over-year tightening of 0.9 percentage points. This creates a notable divergence where US supplies are 10.9 percentage points looser than world supplies.
Specs have positioned accordingly to the global rather than US-specific story, holding net longs of 433,384 contracts at the 96th percentile over 2 years (91st over 10 years). Weekly positioning increased by 92,644 contracts, indicating continued accumulation. The WASDE has remained unchanged throughout the campaign, suggesting stable fundamental conditions. The corn story this month is world supply tightening driving spec accumulation despite a balanced US balance sheet.
Soybeans: Comfortable US Supply Meets Extreme Positioning
US soybean supplies present a more mixed picture with ending stocks at 349.9 million bushels, generating an 8.2% stocks-to-use ratio above the 5-year average of 6.7%. The year-over-year comparison shows stocks building from last year's 7.3%, indicating improving US availability.
World supplies mirror this comfort with a 30.1% stocks-to-use ratio above the 5-year average of 29.0%, though world supplies have tightened 1.0 percentage points year-over-year. The US-world divergence remains significant at 21.9 percentage points, with US conditions considerably tighter than global availability.
Specs maintain extreme net long positioning at 232,198 contracts, reaching the 97th percentile over 2 years (94th over 10 years) with weekly additions of 38,259 contracts. This positioning represents a fundamental divergence where specs remain aggressively net long despite comfortable US supply conditions relative to historical averages. The WASDE has shown no revision momentum throughout the campaign.
Soybean Complex Alignment
The soybean complex shows consistent extreme positioning across products. Soybean meal specs hold net longs at the 97th percentile over 2 years (94th over 10 years) with some recent reduction of 8,387 contracts weekly. Soybean oil presents the most extreme positioning at 168,887 net long contracts, reaching the 98th percentile over 2 years and 99th percentile over 10 years. This broad complex strength supports the view that spec longs reflect a macro agricultural theme rather than soybean-specific fundamentals.
Wheat: Surplus Supply Meets Modest Spec Longs
US wheat supplies remain abundant with ending stocks at 937.6 million bushels, creating a 46.3% stocks-to-use ratio well above the 5-year average of 37.5%. Year-over-year stocks have increased 2.9 percentage points from an already comfortable 43.4% level.
World wheat supplies align more closely with US conditions at 38.1% stocks-to-use, matching the 5-year average but still showing year-over-year building of 2.3 percentage points. The US-world divergence shows US supplies 8.2 percentage points looser than global conditions.
Specs maintain modest net short positioning of 16,668 contracts at the 88th percentile over 2 years but only 51st percentile over 10 years, indicating recent positioning extremes within a structurally normal range. Weekly positioning declined by 17,534 contracts. Hard red winter wheat shows contrasting strength with net longs at the 99th percentile over 2 years. The wheat story reflects abundant global supplies keeping spec interest limited despite recent positioning volatility.
Cotton: Supply Comfort Meets Extreme Spec Interest
US cotton supplies look comfortable with ending stocks at 4.4 million bales, generating a 32.4% stocks-to-use ratio above the 5-year average of 26.4%. Year-over-year stocks have built 3.0 percentage points from last year's 29.4% level.
World cotton supplies show even greater abundance at 64.7% stocks-to-use, well above the 5-year average of 62.6% and building 2.7 percentage points year-over-year. This creates a 32.3 percentage point divergence where US supplies appear tight relative to world availability.
Specs demonstrate extreme positioning at 100,682 net long contracts, reaching the 99th percentile over 2 years (89th over 10 years) with weekly additions of 19,741 contracts. The Z-score of 4.26 indicates positioning at statistical extremes. This represents a clear fundamental divergence where specs maintain aggressive net long exposure despite comfortable US supply conditions.
Softs & Livestock Positioning
The softs complex shows mixed positioning patterns. Sugar specs maintain net shorts of 95,519 contracts at moderate levels (31st percentile over 2 years) with some weekly covering of 48,432 contracts. Coffee and cocoa both show relatively bearish spec positioning with coffee at the 16th percentile and cocoa at the 5th percentile over 2 years, though both saw modest weekly covering.
Livestock markets present more balanced positioning. Live cattle specs hold moderate net longs of 103,719 contracts at the 66th percentile over 2 years (81st over 10 years). Lean hogs show minimal spec interest with small net longs at the 16th percentile. Feeder cattle positioning remains near neutral at the 47th percentile over 2 years.
Cross-Commodity Themes
The dominant theme is concentrated spec buying across major grains despite generally comfortable US supply fundamentals. Corn, soybeans, and cotton all show positioning at or above the 96th percentile over 2 years, indicating broad-based agricultural risk appetite. This pattern suggests macro positioning themes rather than crop-specific fundamental stories are driving spec accumulation. The consistency across grain complexes — including soybean meal and oil — reinforces this view of coordinated agricultural positioning.
📍 Key Questions for Next Month
• Will corn specs maintain 96th percentile net longs if world stocks-to-use continues tightening while US supplies remain 10+ percentage points more comfortable?
• Can soybean complex positioning sustain 97th-99th percentile extremes across beans, meal, and oil given current US stocks-to-use of 8.2% versus a 6.7% five-year average?
• Will cotton's 99th percentile spec positioning (Z-score 4.26) face pressure if the 32.3 percentage point US-world supply divergence narrows in upcoming WASDE revisions?
This analysis combines USDA WASDE supply/demand data with CFTC positioning data for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice.
The next WASDE is expected around the 10th of next month. Check back then for the updated analysis.
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